The study “Development of Four Decade Long Climate Scenario and Trend: Temperature, Rainfall, Sunshine and Humidity” (2013) is the first study of national scope into long-term observed changes and likely future scenarios for climatic variables in Bangladesh.

The study, drawing on data collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Bangladesh Water Development Board, presents statistically observed changes as well as climate models and likely impacts on the agricultural sector. It documents that temperatures are rising – and at an increased rate in recent years; that pre-monsoon rainfall and annual humidity are both increasing; and that sunshine is declining. As a consequence of these changes, the report is predicting a reduction in wheat yield and boro rice yields of up to 26% and 12% in the next century.

The study was conducted by the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme phase 2 (CDMP II), the flagship disaster risk reduction programme of Government of Bangladesh and UNDP Bangladesh, in partnership with Dfid, EU, the Embassies of Sweden and Norway, and AusAid.